February 15, 2025 Blockbuster Blizzard
Model disagreement remains on track of storm system
February 2025 was the 56th-warmest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 34.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 35.6°F (-0.9°F).
February 2025 was the 56th-wettest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.1in (+0.0in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
No doubt about the intensity and longevity of the “Polar Vortex” fueled Arctic blast to bury the Lower 48 next week. However, still some remaining uncertainty about the development and track of a “blockbuster” blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
ECMWF + ensembles, Canadian GEM, and MetOffice Unified Model are crush the coast with 1-2 feet of snowfall. However, the GFS 06z and Germany ICON have a flatter track solution, less phasing with upper-levels, and mostly a miss out-to-sea. Which model should we believe? When you have an outlier, all you can do is wait for the next model update to gauge trends in the position of the 500 mb trough and the low pressure center (vorticity maximum) on track out of the Southeast. But at this juncture, it would be difficult to bet against the ECMWF, GEM, and UM.
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- 523 · laid 2025-02-15T14:26:22.490000Z
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