{
 "number": 523,
 "headline": "February 15, 2025 Blockbuster Blizzard",
 "standfirst": "Model disagreement remains on track of storm system",
 "desk": "winter",
 "dateline": {
  "place": "Weather Trader",
  "state": null,
  "lat": null,
  "lon": null,
  "site_key": null,
  "site_name": null,
  "site_url": null,
  "accent": null
 },
 "edition": "2025-02-15",
 "published": "2025-02-15T14:26:22.490000Z",
 "updated": null,
 "access": "members",
 "body_html": "",
 "body_key": "substack/157195514-february-15-2025-blockbuster-blizzard.html",
 "teaser_html": "<p>No doubt about the intensity and longevity of the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d fueled Arctic blast to bury the Lower 48 next week.  However, still some remaining uncertainty about the development and track of a \u201cblockbuster\u201d blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.</p><p>ECMWF + ensembles, Canadian GEM, and MetOffice Unified Model are crush the coast with 1-2 feet of snowfall.  However, the GFS 06z and Germany ICON have a flatter track solution, less phasing with upper-levels, and mostly a miss out-to-sea.  Which model should we believe?  When you have an outlier, all you can do is wait for the next model update to gauge trends in the position of the 500 mb trough and the low pressure center (vorticity maximum) on track out of the Southeast.  But at this juncture, it would be difficult to bet against the ECMWF, GEM, and UM.</p>",
 "claims": [],
 "assets": [],
 "provenance": {
  "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:15Z",
  "model": null,
  "cycle": null,
  "stores": [
   "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-15-2025-blockbuster-blizzard"
  ],
  "mint_sha256": null,
  "pairing_rule": null,
  "detector": null,
  "detector_version": null,
  "inputs": {
   "substack_post_id": "157195514.february-15-2025-blockbuster-blizzard",
   "audience": "only_paid",
   "type": "newsletter",
   "imported_from": "substack export"
  }
 },
 "strength": 0.0,
 "tags": [
  "archive",
  "only_paid"
 ],
 "supersedes": null,
 "superseded_by": null,
 "source": "substack",
 "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-15-2025-blockbuster-blizzard",
 "slug": "february-15-2025-blockbuster-blizzard",
 "path": "/mp/523/",
 "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/523/",
 "desk_label": "Winter",
 "digest": "e382623564ae62d0b9d97d505ba4f0125be9e564e567b0e749b517896d31913f"
}