It’s fascinating that the GFS model continues to generate a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with landfall int the 7-8 day range, and we do not trust the model enough to even dare showing it on X. That’s certainly a good policy since I do not trust the model for this type of tropical storm formation e.g. Caribbean gyre.

Vorticity sheds from the Caribbean around the periphery of the gyre circulation and then miraculously slides through the Yucatan channel into the Gulf of Mexico where it rapid intensifies into a 960-970s mb hurricane. Run after run for the past several days have shown this solution with various landfall points. Of course this is plausible, but I usually don’t trust the GFS for anything that is interacting with Central America and the gap flows — especially from the Pacific into the Atlantic.