{
 "number": 394,
 "headline": "Sept 20, 2024 Friday Tropical Update",
 "standfirst": "More bullish with faster development timeline in Gulf of Mexico",
 "desk": "tropics",
 "dateline": {
  "place": "Weather Trader",
  "state": null,
  "lat": null,
  "lon": null,
  "site_key": null,
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  "site_url": null,
  "accent": null
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 "edition": "2024-09-21",
 "published": "2024-09-21T02:21:13.232000Z",
 "updated": null,
 "access": "members",
 "body_html": "",
 "body_key": "substack/149188197-sept-20-2024-friday-tropical-update.html",
 "teaser_html": "<p>It\u2019s fascinating that the GFS model continues to generate a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with landfall int the 7-8 day range, and we do not trust the model enough to even dare showing it on X.  That\u2019s certainly a good policy since I do not trust the model for this type of tropical storm formation e.g. Caribbean gyre.</p><p>Vorticity sheds from the Caribbean around the periphery of the gyre circulation and then miraculously slides through the Yucatan channel into the Gulf of Mexico where it rapid intensifies into a 960-970s mb hurricane.  Run after run for the past several days have shown this solution with various landfall points.  Of course this is plausible, but I usually don\u2019t trust the GFS for anything that is interacting with Central America and the gap flows \u2014 especially from the Pacific into the Atlantic.</p>",
 "claims": [],
 "assets": [],
 "provenance": {
  "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:15Z",
  "model": null,
  "cycle": null,
  "stores": [
   "https://weather.substack.com/p/sept-20-2024-friday-tropical-update"
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  "pairing_rule": null,
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  "inputs": {
   "substack_post_id": "149188197.sept-20-2024-friday-tropical-update",
   "audience": "only_paid",
   "type": "newsletter",
   "imported_from": "substack export"
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 "strength": 0.0,
 "tags": [
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 "supersedes": null,
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 "source": "substack",
 "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/sept-20-2024-friday-tropical-update",
 "slug": "sept-20-2024-friday-tropical-update",
 "path": "/mp/394/",
 "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/394/",
 "desk_label": "Tropics",
 "digest": "7afe7e8491ef06cc32d14d75b2cee8ef6bef771e1586620a970005d21f650046"
}