A tropical wave with almost no shower activity — a dry wave — embedded within stable, African/Saharan dust layer air is tracking WNW across the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. NHC now gives a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 7-days in an area centralized over the Bahamas.

However, steering flow due to a “heat dome” over the eastern U.S. favors a “recurve” track but uncertainty about impacts to Florida east coast, up to Carolinas, and Northeast. Good news: ensemble modeling does not indicate extreme intensity any long as previous forecast cycles showed last week. Indeed, GFS/GEFS barely registers the tropical wave and can not be bothered to develop it.