June 5, 2024 Tropical Update
ECMWF Seasonal Update shows highly active Atlantic
June 2024 was the 2nd-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 71.8°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+2.3°F).
June 2024 was the 41st-driest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
The July-December 2024 ECMWF seasonal prognostication from the seasonal model released today shows 21.1 Named Storms vs. a model climatology of 13.5 — highly significant “active” season for the Atlantic.
During a growing La Nina, we expect average or below average activity across the Pacific including the typhoons and hurricanes from China to Mexico. The seasonal model does show such a solution, so there’s some credibility in the overall forecast for the seasonal ahead.
The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.
Read the full piece →- Milepost
- 301 · laid 2024-06-05T17:01:10.668000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/june-5-2024-tropical-update
- Digest
- d3ad92020274ad167ea0bc702602a6e2648ff12a8ce811871fbdfaf2f3e5fa85
- Machine
- JSON