Guidance has run 4.0°F warm at T41 for a month
The mean signed residual across 1,072 pairs is +3.96°F, against +0.11°F averaged over all 85 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The LedgerSunday, November 15, 2026T41
JSON
Milepost 1691
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At T41 over October 16–November 15, 2026, it lands +3.96°F from the report, across 1,072 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 85 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at T41 Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.96 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 85 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1691 · laid 2026-11-15T00:25:31Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 8ac2ebf30827ba2b24dd6a32dd377b10e0b7a40579aa0f6b6e4d4d8534414501