The ledger, through November 15
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.38°F at day 1 and 4.61°F at day 7, over 740,332 settled forecast-observation pairs.
The LedgerSunday, November 15, 2026The Ledger
JSON
Milepost 1692
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 16–November 15, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 68,853 |
| Day 2 | 2.67 | 2.55 | 68,564 |
| Day 3 | 2.97 | 2.79 | 68,549 |
| Day 4 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 68,028 |
| Day 5 | 3.74 | 3.52 | 67,947 |
| Day 6 | 4.30 | 4.08 | 67,936 |
| Day 7 | 4.69 | 4.61 | 55,091 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.01 | 34,522 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 38,966 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 34,576 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.79 °F | of 34,580 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.52 °F | of 34,578 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.61 °F | of 34,571 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 17,213 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.69 °F | of 17,140 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.31 °F | of 17,113 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.34 °F | of 17,087 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 34,277 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.97 °F | of 33,969 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.74 °F | of 33,369 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.69 °F | of 20,520 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.5 °F | of 30,301 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1692 · laid 2026-11-15T00:25:31Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- a368c34632c805f30d4504637c51a246fe8b0d367329130d38a0834fb927a195