{
 "number": 1691,
 "headline": "Guidance has run 4.0\u00b0F warm at T41 for a month",
 "standfirst": "The mean signed residual across 1,072 pairs is +3.96\u00b0F, against +0.11\u00b0F averaged over all 85 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore \u2014 it is one they can correct for.",
 "desk": "ledger",
 "dateline": {
  "place": "T41",
  "state": null,
  "lat": null,
  "lon": null,
  "site_key": null,
  "site_name": null,
  "site_url": null,
  "accent": null
 },
 "edition": "2026-11-15",
 "published": "2026-11-15T00:25:31Z",
 "updated": null,
 "access": "free",
 "body_html": "<p>Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the <em>signed</em> mean says which side it lands on. At T41 over October 16\u2013November 15, 2026, it lands <span class=\"mono\">+3.96\u00b0F</span> from the report, across 1,072 pairs \u2014 the largest standing lean of any of the 85 stations currently carrying enough samples.</p><p class=\"note\">ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.</p>",
 "body_key": null,
 "teaser_html": "",
 "claims": [
  {
   "text": "mean signed residual at T41",
   "value": 3.96,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": 0.11,
   "rank": 1,
   "of": 85,
   "period": "October 16\u2013November 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  }
 ],
 "assets": [],
 "provenance": {
  "built_at": "2026-11-15T00:25:27Z",
  "model": null,
  "cycle": null,
  "stores": [
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson",
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson"
  ],
  "mint_sha256": null,
  "pairing_rule": "ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.",
  "detector": "ledger",
  "detector_version": "1",
  "inputs": {
   "station": "T41",
   "pairs": 1072,
   "stations_scored": 85
  }
 },
 "strength": 0.796,
 "tags": [
  "ledger",
  "bias",
  "t41"
 ],
 "supersedes": null,
 "superseded_by": null,
 "source": "wire",
 "canonical": null,
 "route": 500,
 "storyline": null,
 "geo": null,
 "label": null,
 "cover": null,
 "slug": "guidance-has-run-4-0-f-warm-at-t41-for-a-month",
 "path": "/mp/1691/",
 "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/1691/",
 "desk_label": "The Ledger",
 "digest": "8ac2ebf30827ba2b24dd6a32dd377b10e0b7a40579aa0f6b6e4d4d8534414501",
 "head": "Guidance has run 4.0\u00b0F warm at T41 for a month",
 "kicker_label": "The Ledger",
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 "pin": null
}