MVH The Ledger
MILEPOST 1610
The month's worst miss: NDFD was 41.9°F too cool at MVH
A day-4 forecast of 37.0°F for October 10 at 00Z; the station reported 78.8°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.
The forecast was issued in the 20261006T06:00Z cycle, 90 hours before valid time, and called for 37.0°F. The observation was 78.8°F — a residual of -41.9°F.
264 of the 13,438 residuals above 12°F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. No rows in this window were excluded as data defects.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast, day 4 Forecast Network verification ledger |
37 °F | normal 78.8 °F October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| residual Forecast Network verification ledger |
-41.9 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 13,438 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1610 · laid 2026-11-08T18:25:28Z
- Model
- ndfd · cycle 20261006T06:00Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 0338df07540774932d333ff4ae9025b98f08fb2efeed30080e2a6fc85e98ec93
- Machine
- JSON