{
 "number": 1610,
 "headline": "The month's worst miss: NDFD was 41.9\u00b0F too cool at MVH",
 "standfirst": "A day-4 forecast of 37.0\u00b0F for October 10 at 00Z; the station reported 78.8\u00b0F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.",
 "desk": "ledger",
 "dateline": {
  "place": "MVH",
  "state": null,
  "lat": null,
  "lon": null,
  "site_key": null,
  "site_name": null,
  "site_url": null,
  "accent": null
 },
 "edition": "2026-11-08",
 "published": "2026-11-08T18:25:28Z",
 "updated": null,
 "access": "free",
 "body_html": "<p>The forecast was issued in the <span class=\"mono\">20261006T06:00Z</span> cycle, 90 hours before valid time, and called for <span class=\"mono\">37.0\u00b0F</span>. The observation was <span class=\"mono\">78.8\u00b0F</span> \u2014 a residual of <span class=\"mono\">-41.9\u00b0F</span>.</p><p>264 of the 13,438 residuals above 12\u00b0F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.</p><p class=\"note\">ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. No rows in this window were excluded as data defects.</p>",
 "body_key": null,
 "teaser_html": "",
 "claims": [
  {
   "text": "forecast, day 4",
   "value": 37.0,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": 78.8,
   "rank": null,
   "of": null,
   "period": "October 9\u2013November 8, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "residual",
   "value": -41.9,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": 0.0,
   "rank": 1,
   "of": 13438,
   "period": "October 9\u2013November 8, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  }
 ],
 "assets": [],
 "provenance": {
  "built_at": "2026-11-08T18:25:23Z",
  "model": "ndfd",
  "cycle": "20261006T06:00Z",
  "stores": [
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson",
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson"
  ],
  "mint_sha256": null,
  "pairing_rule": "ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.",
  "detector": "ledger",
  "detector_version": "1",
  "inputs": {
   "station": "MVH",
   "seed": "USW00024036",
   "valid": "2026-10-10T00:00:00Z",
   "lead_h": 90,
   "bust_threshold_f": 12.0,
   "defects_excluded": 0
  }
 },
 "strength": 0.88,
 "tags": [
  "ledger",
  "bust",
  "mvh"
 ],
 "supersedes": null,
 "superseded_by": null,
 "source": "wire",
 "canonical": null,
 "slug": "the-month-s-worst-miss-ndfd-was-41-9-f-too-cool-at-mvh",
 "path": "/mp/1610/",
 "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/1610/",
 "desk_label": "The Ledger",
 "digest": "0338df07540774932d333ff4ae9025b98f08fb2efeed30080e2a6fc85e98ec93"
}