The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1088
The ledger, through September 15
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.61°F at day 7, over 415,341 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 16–September 15, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.29 | 2.23 | 64,411 |
| Day 2 | 2.48 | 2.43 | 62,154 |
| Day 3 | 2.74 | 2.65 | 59,655 |
| Day 4 | 2.97 | 2.86 | 57,300 |
| Day 5 | 3.22 | 3.11 | 54,905 |
| Day 6 | 3.48 | 3.37 | 52,494 |
| Day 7 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 40,726 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.91 | 23,696 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 31,975 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.65 °F | of 29,632 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.11 °F | of 27,308 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.61 °F | of 24,895 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 32,436 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.74 °F | of 30,023 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.22 °F | of 27,597 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.77 °F | of 15,831 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1088 · laid 2026-09-15T00:25:13Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 00232d726529b554ceabd9fbe57d615e356bc405924ab614d2803a8ff3bf7a46
- Machine
- JSON