{
 "number": 1088,
 "headline": "The ledger, through September 15",
 "standfirst": "Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23\u00b0F at day 1 and 3.61\u00b0F at day 7, over 415,341 settled forecast-observation pairs.",
 "desk": "ledger",
 "dateline": {
  "place": "The Ledger",
  "state": null,
  "lat": null,
  "lon": null,
  "site_key": null,
  "site_name": null,
  "site_url": null,
  "accent": null
 },
 "edition": "2026-09-15",
 "published": "2026-09-15T00:25:13Z",
 "updated": null,
 "access": "free",
 "body_html": "<p>Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 16\u2013September 15, 2026.</p><table class=\"tbl\"><thead><tr><th>Lead</th><th class=\"num\">NDFD</th><th class=\"num\">NBM</th><th class=\"num\">pairs</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Day 1</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.29</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.23</td><td class=\"mono num\">64,411</td></tr><tr><td>Day 2</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.48</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.43</td><td class=\"mono num\">62,154</td></tr><tr><td>Day 3</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.74</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.65</td><td class=\"mono num\">59,655</td></tr><tr><td>Day 4</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.97</td><td class=\"mono num\">2.86</td><td class=\"mono num\">57,300</td></tr><tr><td>Day 5</td><td class=\"mono num\">3.22</td><td class=\"mono num\">3.11</td><td class=\"mono num\">54,905</td></tr><tr><td>Day 6</td><td class=\"mono num\">3.48</td><td class=\"mono num\">3.37</td><td class=\"mono num\">52,494</td></tr><tr><td>Day 7</td><td class=\"mono num\">3.77</td><td class=\"mono num\">3.61</td><td class=\"mono num\">40,726</td></tr><tr><td>Day 8</td><td class=\"num\">\u2014</td><td class=\"mono num\">3.91</td><td class=\"mono num\">23,696</td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"note\">Mean absolute error, \u00b0F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.</p>",
 "body_key": null,
 "teaser_html": "",
 "claims": [
  {
   "text": "day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM",
   "value": 2.23,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 31975,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM",
   "value": 2.65,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 29632,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM",
   "value": 3.11,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 27308,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM",
   "value": 3.61,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 24895,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD",
   "value": 2.29,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 32436,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD",
   "value": 2.74,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 30023,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD",
   "value": 3.22,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 27597,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD",
   "value": 3.77,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": null,
   "rank": null,
   "of": 15831,
   "period": "August 16\u2013September 15, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  }
 ],
 "assets": [],
 "provenance": {
  "built_at": "2026-09-15T00:25:08Z",
  "model": null,
  "cycle": null,
  "stores": [
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson",
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson"
  ],
  "mint_sha256": null,
  "pairing_rule": "ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.",
  "detector": "ledger",
  "detector_version": "1",
  "inputs": {
   "window_days": 30,
   "pairs": 593467,
   "min_pairs_per_cell": 120
  }
 },
 "strength": 0.52,
 "tags": [
  "ledger",
  "skill",
  "verification"
 ],
 "supersedes": null,
 "superseded_by": null,
 "source": "wire",
 "canonical": null,
 "slug": "the-ledger-through-september-15",
 "path": "/mp/1088/",
 "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/1088/",
 "desk_label": "The Ledger",
 "digest": "00232d726529b554ceabd9fbe57d615e356bc405924ab614d2803a8ff3bf7a46"
}