{
 "number": 1030,
 "headline": "The month's worst miss: NBM was 29.6\u00b0F too warm at HVE",
 "standfirst": "A day-8 forecast of 92.2\u00b0F for September 1 at 00Z; the station reported 62.6\u00b0F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.",
 "desk": "ledger",
 "dateline": {
  "place": "HVE",
  "state": null,
  "lat": null,
  "lon": null,
  "site_key": null,
  "site_name": null,
  "site_url": null,
  "accent": null
 },
 "edition": "2026-09-10",
 "published": "2026-09-10T12:29:55Z",
 "updated": null,
 "access": "free",
 "body_html": "<p>The forecast was issued in the <span class=\"mono\">20260824T00:00Z</span> cycle, 192 hours before valid time, and called for <span class=\"mono\">92.2\u00b0F</span>. The observation was <span class=\"mono\">62.6\u00b0F</span> \u2014 a residual of <span class=\"mono\">+29.6\u00b0F</span>.</p><p>292 of the 3,118 residuals above 12\u00b0F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.</p><p class=\"note\">ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. 2 rows in this window were excluded as a data defect rather than a forecast error.</p>",
 "body_key": null,
 "teaser_html": "",
 "claims": [
  {
   "text": "forecast, day 8",
   "value": 92.2,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": 62.6,
   "rank": null,
   "of": null,
   "period": "August 11\u2013September 10, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  },
  {
   "text": "residual",
   "value": 29.6,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": 0.0,
   "rank": 1,
   "of": 3118,
   "period": "August 11\u2013September 10, 2026",
   "source": "Forecast Network verification ledger"
  }
 ],
 "assets": [],
 "provenance": {
  "built_at": "2026-09-10T12:29:53Z",
  "model": "nbm",
  "cycle": "20260824T00:00Z",
  "stores": [
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson",
   "/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson"
  ],
  "mint_sha256": null,
  "pairing_rule": "ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.",
  "detector": "ledger",
  "detector_version": "1",
  "inputs": {
   "station": "HVE",
   "seed": "USW00023170",
   "valid": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
   "lead_h": 192,
   "bust_threshold_f": 12.0,
   "defects_excluded": 2
  }
 },
 "strength": 0.88,
 "tags": [
  "ledger",
  "bust",
  "hve"
 ],
 "supersedes": null,
 "superseded_by": null,
 "source": "wire",
 "canonical": null,
 "slug": "the-month-s-worst-miss-nbm-was-29-6-f-too-warm-at-hve",
 "path": "/mp/1030/",
 "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/1030/",
 "desk_label": "The Ledger",
 "digest": "3ea3952b208c69005e38188266d9a57ded21423fe3fc77bde4cb3b46de9857b0"
}