Tropical Storm Dolly named earlier this morning is poorly organized with a couple areas of convection. The large circulation will race to the WNW toward the Leeward Islands but unlikely to be a named system by then — with wind shear taking it apart.

Headlines Thursday Evening in the Tropics

• Tropical Storm Dolly (04L) at 40 mph — minimal system

• In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell formed. Both have good chance to become Category 1/2 hurricanes. Lowell may threaten Hawaii in 8-10 days, too.

Sea Surface Temperatures across the Atlantic Basin (28°C — very warm = red)

Note the 30°C warmth in the Gulf of Mexico — and along the Mexican coast in the Gulf of California — maybe closer to 32°C.

Atlantic IR Satellite Loop

The only notable features across the entire Atlantic basin are Tropical Storm Dolly and a weaker tropical wave to the east.

You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud —> LINK

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

The track is typical WNW — in line with previous A.I. trained systems several days ago —> picking up nicely on the weak solution. Dolly may become post-tropical into Saturday and arrive in the northern Leeward Islands early Sunday.

Google Deep Mind 18z loses track of Dolly in under 48-hours

Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days | AIFS-ENS

Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-18z still show ancillary development in the Gulf of Mexico, and that has been showing up for about a week now. Nothing imminent.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

A handful of members track the weaker remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly in the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas and blow up into a major hurricane (10% chance)

And into early September, small chance (10%) of another African wave catching fire. However, again, nothing imminent.

Google Deep Mind 12z and 18z Ensemble Tracks

Also only a handful of members (10%) with ancillary development of TS/Hurricanes near the U.S. coast (Gulf of Mexico & Southeast)

GERMANY ICON | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 5-days

ICON 18z still has a TD/TS into the weekend, a bit more intense than suggested by NHC. Perhaps Dolly can make it through the wind shear gauntlet.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

Dolly races westward but is lost. At least 3 more tropical waves come off Africa in the next 10-days or so, but nothing primed for development.

More dust over the next 5-days … and another plume comes off the continent.

Tropical Waves Analysis | Thursday Evening 18z

Equatorial Africa | Tropical Wave Train

Eastern Pacific Tropics | Very Busy!

So many tropical cyclones! Next 5-days

Tropical Storm Karina could become a major hurricane this weekend — won’t threaten land —> fish mixer.

Tropical Storm Lowell also could become a Category 1/2 hurricane in a few days as it turns westward … and will survive for another 7-10 days nearing Hawaii

Western Pacific Tropics

Saudel making landfall in China as a 70-knots Category 1 Typhoon

Interesting couple storms out in the open Central Pacific —> Etau (21W) and Bang-Lang (20W)

20W —> Bang-Lang (giant crepe‑myrtle) replaced Vamco (Vietnam named)

It’s a micro-typhoon, and could become quite intense, maybe Category 3 or 4! Will cross over Wake Island as a TS into Friday.

Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

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