{ "number": 1020, "headline": "August 27, 2026 Thursday Evening Tropics", "standfirst": "Tropical Storm Dolly holding on in the central Atlantic while the Eastern Pacific at full tilt with two more storms", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-28", "published": "2026-08-28T01:36:35.647000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1017 \u2014 Day 239 of 2026.

Day 88 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 4 Named Storms, ACE = 3.3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Tropical Storm Dolly named earlier this morning is poorly organized with a couple areas of convection. The large circulation will race to the WNW toward the Leeward Islands but unlikely to be a named system by then \u2014 with wind shear taking it apart.

Headlines Thursday Evening in the Tropics

Sea Surface Temperatures across the Atlantic Basin (28\u00b0C \u2014 very warm = red)

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Note the 30\u00b0C warmth in the Gulf of Mexico \u2014 and along the Mexican coast in the Gulf of California \u2014 maybe closer to 32\u00b0C.

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Atlantic IR Satellite Loop

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The only notable features across the entire Atlantic basin are Tropical Storm Dolly and a weaker tropical wave to the east.

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

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The track is typical WNW \u2014 in line with previous A.I. trained systems several days ago \u2014> picking up nicely on the weak solution. Dolly may become post-tropical into Saturday and arrive in the northern Leeward Islands early Sunday.

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Google Deep Mind 18z loses track of Dolly in under 48-hours

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Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days | AIFS-ENS

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Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-18z still show ancillary development in the Gulf of Mexico, and that has been showing up for about a week now. Nothing imminent.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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A handful of members track the weaker remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly in the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas and blow up into a major hurricane (10% chance)

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And into early September, small chance (10%) of another African wave catching fire. However, again, nothing imminent.

Google Deep Mind 12z and 18z Ensemble Tracks

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Also only a handful of members (10%) with ancillary development of TS/Hurricanes near the U.S. coast (Gulf of Mexico & Southeast)

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Aside from Tropical Storm Dolly \u2014 nothing else percolating at least for 10-days

GERMANY ICON | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 5-days

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ICON 18z still has a TD/TS into the weekend, a bit more intense than suggested by NHC. Perhaps Dolly can make it through the wind shear gauntlet.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

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Dolly races westward but is lost. At least 3 more tropical waves come off Africa in the next 10-days or so, but nothing primed for development.

Heading into the peak of Atlantic hurricane season \u2014 and everything looks very quiet with a hostile environment.

More dust over the next 5-days \u2026 and another plume comes off the continent.

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Tropical Waves Analysis | Thursday Evening 18z

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Equatorial Africa | Tropical Wave Train

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Eastern Pacific Tropics | Very Busy!

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So many tropical cyclones! Next 5-days

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Tropical Storm Karina could become a major hurricane this weekend \u2014 won\u2019t threaten land \u2014> fish mixer.

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Tropical Storm Lowell also could become a Category 1/2 hurricane in a few days as it turns westward \u2026 and will survive for another 7-10 days nearing Hawaii

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After Lowell and Karina \u2014> Marie follows \u2014 looks much larger.

Need to watch Lowell into Hawaii from the south \u2014 but 10-days away!

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Western Pacific Tropics

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Saudel making landfall in China as a 70-knots Category 1 Typhoon

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Interesting couple storms out in the open Central Pacific \u2014> Etau (21W) and Bang-Lang (20W)

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20W \u2014> Bang-Lang (giant crepe\u2011myrtle) replaced Vamco (Vietnam named)

It\u2019s a micro-typhoon, and could become quite intense, maybe Category 3 or 4! Will cross over Wake Island as a TS into Friday.

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

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Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Tropical Storm Dolly named earlier this morning is poorly organized with a couple areas of convection. The large circulation will race to the WNW toward the Leeward Islands but unlikely to be a named system by then \u2014 with wind shear taking it apart.

Tropical Storm Dolly (04L) at 40 mph \u2014 minimal system

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