{ "number": 1016, "headline": "August 23, 2026 Sunday Evening Tropics", "standfirst": "Pacific continues to churn out tropical systems. The Atlantic has several areas to watch including a tropical wave with moderate chance of development in MDR this week.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-24", "published": "2026-08-24T02:13:35.046000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is forecast post number 1013 \u2014 Day 235 of 2026.

Day 84 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. 4 annual subscriber renewals.

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our growing platform, consider becoming a paid subscriber / supporter.

To Receive All Published Posts Via Email and Substack App \u2014 Become a Follower or Supporter, too. 25% off Subscription Offer

Invest 95L \u2014 well east of the mainland U.S. \u2014 50% chance of development

\"\"

Headlines Sunday Evening across the tropics

Atlantic IR Satellite Loop

\"\"
\"\"

Huge tropical wave now coming off the coast of Africa, and we\u2019ll be watching for the next 10-days.

\"\"

You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

\"\"

Invest 95L in the central Atlantic will continue northward, and may become Dolly briefly.

\"\"

Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days

\"\"

Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-18z \u2026

\"\"

More recurving members with 18z \u2014 stronger goes north faster \u2014 and weaker goes west.

This tropical wave is tracked across the MDR at TD or low-TS intensity, but then has a better chance to intensify into a hurricane in 10-days assuming it heads quite far west.

Still a few members pop up a TS/Hurricane in the Gulf \u2026 signal is still there.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

\"\"
\"\"

Same story as 00z, the main difference between AIFS and the full-physics EPS: recurve much sooner along 60\u00b0W

The machine learning trained system (AIFS) has a weaker system, and that is allowed to drift further westward. But on the other hand, it may be removing a too-soon-to-recurve bias in the full physics system.

Google Deep Mind 18z Ensemble Tracks

\"\"

Still quite a collection of very intense members off the Southeast U.S. coast into Day 10. Until the AIFS-ENS and Google Deep Mind abandon this scenario, we must remain vigilant with this tropical wave, and any following into mid-September

Cyclonic Vorticity Next 6-days \u2014> we\u2019ve got a spinner!

\"\"

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days

\"\"

All systems go for a weak to moderate tropical storm!

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

\"\"

This cycle of AIFS-Single has a stronger tropical storm through the MDR from the tropical wave (eventually 96L) but it sputters on a westerly course to the NE Caribbean. Note, the full-physics systems are recurving right away to the north out of the central MDR.

Equatorial Africa \u2014 Tropical Wave coming off continent into Monday with more lined up into next weekend

\"\"

Eastern Pacific Tropics

Tropical Storm Iselle generating very intense convection tonight!

\"\"

Western Pacific Tropics | Typhoon Saudel

\"\"
\"\"

Typhoon Saudel (17W) still at 110 knots (almost Category 4) and the track philosophy hasn\u2019t changed still WNW and then a 45\u00b0 left turn into China as a much weaker system.

\"\"
\"\"

Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

\"\"

Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

\"\"

Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud, and soon Radar Imager from Forecast dBZ.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Invest 95L \u2014 well east of the mainland U.S. \u2014 50% chance of development

Major tropical wave now coming off Africa \u2014 and all systems go for a tropical depression into mid-week over the very warm waters of the Main Development Region.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:13Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/august-23-2026-sunday-evening-tropics" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "212484180.august-23-2026-sunday-evening-tropics", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/august-23-2026-sunday-evening-tropics", "slug": "august-23-2026-sunday-evening-tropics", "path": "/mp/1016/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/1016/", "desk_label": "Tropics", "digest": "05aec848a74927e11829d8fffa79524644dfdacfd6dbb7e952c2613be32219d3" }