{ "number": 1015, "headline": "August 23, 2026 Sunday Morning Tropics", "standfirst": "Pacific continues to churn out tropical systems. The Atlantic has several areas to watch including a tropical wave with moderate chance of development in MDR this week.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-23", "published": "2026-08-23T15:29:02.601000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1012 \u2014 Day 235 of 2026.

Day 84 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Headlines Sunday Morning Across the Tropics

Atlantci IR Satellite Loop into early Afternoon

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The tropical wave over Africa is the one we are watching \u2014 probably for the next 10-days as it treks across the Atlantic.

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

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Invest 95L in the central Atlantic will continue northward, and may become Dolly briefly.

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Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days

Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-06z \u2026

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The tropical wave is tracked across the MDR at TD or low-TS intensity, but then has a better chance to intensify into a hurricane in 10-days assuming it heads quite far west. There are many members with major hurricane but off the U.S. East Coast.

Additional development in the Gulf needs to be watched in 2-weeks as many members have popped with TS/Hurricanes. Low chance, long range, so only something to watch.

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ECMWF Ensemble 00z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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The main difference between AIFS and the full-physics EPS: recurve much sooner along 60\u00b0W.

To me, the machine learning trained system (AIFS) has a weaker system and that is allowed to drift further westward. But on the other hand, it may be removing a too-soon-to-recurve bias in the full physics system.

We need another vote!

Google Deep Mind 06z Ensemble Tracks

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Quite a collection of very intense members off the East Coast into Day 10.

Until the AIFS and Google Deep Mind abandon this scenario, we must remain vigilant with the tropical wave.

Day 5 \u2014 Next Thursday Afternoon convective structure of the tropical wave \u2014 simulated WV and IR

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The tropical wave is robust with a strong circulation and plenty of moisture, but there is dry air (Saharan Air Layer) to the north, and that\u2019s wrecked all previous waves regardless of model excitement. However, I think this one will survive \u2014 perhaps at a low-ebb for the next week.

Extending HRES 00z (ECMWF) into Day 12 \u2014 Major Hurricane recurved well off the East Coast and away from Bermuda.

And, for reference (not fun) here\u2019s the GFS 06z 9-day forecast minimum MSLP swath with a major hurricane heading out to sea.

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Portugal Low Pressure System

Non-tropical area of low pressure off Portugal did not intensify as a tropical cyclone. The midlatitude trough in which it is embedded has keep the system mostly cold-core through the mid-levels.

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days

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Tropical wave looks quite healthy \u2014 but the environment is hostile with dry air in the MDR. However, this looks like a tropical storm.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

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AIFS Single 06z is due west with the aforementioned tropical wave, with limited development.

Sea Surface Temperatures in Atlantic are very warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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Very warm off Africa with 28.5\u00b0C to 30\u00b0C. The rest of the basin is also very warm including 30\u00b0C in the Gulf. The Caribbean is a bit cooler than normal but still plenty sufficient for any intensity hurricane. However, highly unlikely we\u2019ll see one anytime soon in the \u201cshear shredding\u201d Caribbean.

ECMWF CAMS 00z \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth and dry air combined with subsidence at low levels.

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The SAL is not giving up, and may \u201csomewhat\u201d suppress the tropical wave we\u2019ll be watching all week.

Tropical Waves \u2014 Busy tropics from Pacific into the Atlantic typical into late August.

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Equatorial Africa \u2014 Tropical Wave coming off continent tomorrow

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You can see the circulation / spin in a large scale sense already

Central and Eastern Pacific Tropics

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Tropical Storm Iselle has formed

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Iselle is forecast to become a hurricane \u2014 but remain away from land.

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Tropical Storm Moke has not intensified well south of Hawaii with 45 mph winds.

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More storms in the pipeline! Could be 1-2 more in 10-days

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Pacific Hurricane And Typhoon Factory.

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Western Pacific Tropics

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Typhoon Saudel (17W) at 110 knots (almost Category 4)

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Track will turn to the west and southwest in 3-4 days but weaken as it heads into China \u2014 impact as a strong TS or weak Cat 1 Typhoon, but a very large system at this juncture.

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HAFS-A 06z mesoscale model (parent domain) shows large Typhoon Saudel bending westward in 4-5 days

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Western Pacific \u2014> Central Pacific remains VERY busy in coming 10-days

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

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Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud, and soon Radar Imager from Forecast dBZ.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Atlantic basin comes back to life in next few days with models showing a tropical storm in the Main Development Region in 4-5 days. However, the environment is less than ideal, and not expecting much in the way of intensification beyond a tropical depression or storm for maybe 7-10 days when the system can escape into the Western Atlantic north of the Caribbean.

A non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of Portugal is embedded with a mid-latitude trough and did not have time nor warm enough water to become fully tropical. No name.

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