{ "number": 1002, "headline": "Atlantic Basin Maybe Coming to Life into Mid-August", "standfirst": "Robust tropical waves coming off Africa will follow a major Saharan dust layer event", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-07", "published": "2026-08-07T23:31:33.082000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is Weather Wires Post 4: Day 219 of 2026.

Day 68 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD: 2 Named Storms

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to 1 new annual subscriber, and 4 renewing paid subscribers and other visitors. Even with this so-far quiet hurricane season, we continue to grow! Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Forecast post 1,000 will wait as I finish a major project with newly open-sourced Google Deep Mind WeatherNext 2 data.

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Tropical disturbance off the Florida / Southeast U.S. coastline is enhancing rainfall but there is no organized surface circulation, and no further development is expected. Strong storms with a frontal boundary are moving through NYC this evening to help cool off the sultry / humid air mass stuck over the big cities.

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Overall, the tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet. Some areas of convection in the far eastern Main Development Region related to a tropical wave that\u2019s hold on, and another just about to come off the African coast. The latter is very robust with massive thunderstorms.

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Next 10-days with the ECMWF simulated water vapor imagery

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The main features in the tropics: Saharan Air Layers (very dry) and the ITCZ with embedded tropical waves. The timing needs to be just right for the tropical waves to avoid being wiped out by the SAL (and dust) which is stable and very warm at lower-levels. We have 2 main opportunities in the next 7-10 days.

Vorticity Next 10-days | ECMWF 12z

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The 12z forecast of ECMWF HRES shows two tropical waves with low-pressure and circulation sufficient for at least tropical depression or storm classification, but just barely.

Candidate #1 tracks westward at lower latitude into the Caribbean \u2014> not going to survive there.

Candidate #2 heads WNW to east of the northern Lesser Antilles into Day 10.

The Atlantic basin is hostile mainly with dry and stable Saharan Air Layers + dust cutting into the top half of the Main Development Region (MDR).

We\u2019re heading into mid-August \u2014> so overall conditions/environment in MDR improve with climatology, and even the strong wind shear from El Ni\u00f1o won\u2019t wreck the eastern half of the tropical Atlantic basin so much as the shutting down the Gulf and Caribbean.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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The two candidate tropical waves have good ensemble support. The second (next week) will have a better opportunity to turn into a hurricane or even a major hurricane into August 15-17. I\u2019d put the chance of a H/MH at 20%.

Chance of 2 named storms in the next 15-days? I\u2019d say 50%

Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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Saharan Air Layers like giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the Main Development Region with tropical waves to the south in the ITCZ/monsoon trough which is absolutely loaded with tropical moisture.

2 strong tropical waves at lower latitudes moving west but the SAL to the north will work hard against them.

We\u2019re heading into Cape Verde season with tropical waves more robust and conditions in the MDR better even in the face of the El Ni\u00f1o, so we need to monitor everything regardless of the negative background environment.

Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, quite a few tropical waves in the MDR that look healthy enough, and we\u2019ll have to watch into next week. I see at least 3 candidates with 2 better chance of survival.

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Atlantic Tropics showing some signs of life \u2014 watching tropical waves

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Huge Saharan Dust Layer coming into the Atlantic \u2014 image from earlier Friday

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Tropical Waves \u2014 Lined up 7 deep from the Eastern Pacific to coast of Africa

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2 of the waves in the parade in the Central/Eastern Pacific are now marked with 20% to 30% chance of development in next 7-days. None in the Atlantic (yet).

Here\u2019s our Tropical Wave coming off Africa with a massive convective blowup, and another upstream in 2-days

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Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26\u00b0C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20\u00b0N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels.

SAL events will continue for the next 5-days with this major plume reaching Florida in into early next week. HUGE.

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Tropical Equatorial Africa \u2014 More waves in the pipeline or \u201cwave train\u201d

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site.

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Tropical disturbance off the Florida / Southeast U.S. coastline is enhancing rainfall but there is no organized surface circulation, and no further development is expected. Strong storms with a frontal boundary are moving through NYC this evening to help cool off the sultry / humid air mass stuck over the big cities.

Overall, the tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet. Some areas of convection in the far eastern Main Development Region related to a tropical wave that\u2019s hold on, and another just about to come off the African coast. The latter is very robust with massive thunderstorms.

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