Super Typhoon Dolphin
After eyewall replacement cycle, the powerful Western Pacific typhoon will become a buzzsaw at Category 5
July 2026 was the warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 76.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+2.5°F).
July 2026 was the 26th-driest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Typhoon Dolphin (12W) with a much larger eye and very cold convective cloud canopy around it — satellite intensity > T 7.0 now
Satellite imagery at squall.cloud
Dolphin is way out in the far Western Pacific. This location for genesis of a tropical storm — actually coming out of the Central Pacific as Invest 92P — is typical during a strong El Niño. All of the real estate (ocean) ahead of Dolphin is record warm > 30°C or 31°C
Sea Surface Temperatures (Met Office OSTIA 0.05°)
The track of Dolphin is coincidentally right over the very warm waters, so any inhibition to maximum intensity will be environmental dry air, wind shear, and any structural issues (eyewall replacement cycles) or expansion to a giant tractor tire type system while approaching the subtropics.
Typhoon 12W Automated Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Satellites can infer the intensity of a tropical cyclone by examining the eye temperature and the “Cloud Region” temperature of the convection around it. Once the eye warms > 0°C while the cloud region hovers around -80°C, we can pretty much guarantee Category 5 (140-knots). If the eye warms to +20°C, then we can get to T 8.0 (170-knots) and Dolphin would become one of the most intense typhoons on record. Should get there in the next 24-36 hours, or sooner!
Track of Super Typhoon Dolphin
JTWC forecast — maximum winds of 150-knots on a WNW course
Over the next 12-days, Dolphin will approach southern Japan and then either continue along a more northerly course toward Korea, or perhaps bend westward into China.
Precipitable Water Next 6-days (ECMWF 06z)
Google Deep Mind Ensembles (06z fresh) show most intensity outcomes in the 900-920 mb range with the ensemble mean outcome (that’s not an actual track forecast itself) heading south of Japan
The full-physics ECMWF EPS 00z shows two track clusters but the most populated matches the Google Deep Mind southward track along 30°N latitude
HAFS-A Mesoscale Model
Dolphin will be well away for land for the next week, at least, so we can watch the massive Super Typhoon with awe from space.
During the next several days, Dolphin will become larger in size, dramatically.
Atlantic Tropics —> ghost town into mid-August
Ensembles (50-members) through Aug 12th —> nothing stirring or threatening.
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 995 · laid 2026-07-29T13:33:33.429000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/super-typhoon-dolphin
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- 392216f3b63d7a5cbeb35349aa74b8d34176e2ef234db1cb74797282a33ef16f
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- JSON