July 18, 2026 Saturday Tropical Update
Invest 91L tagged in the Gulf with a 50% chance of further development into a tropical depression. Next name is Bertha.
July 2026 was the warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 76.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+2.5°F).
July 2026 was the 26th-driest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Invest 91L was tagged in the east central Gulf of Mexico with a 50% of development into a tropical depression in the next few days as it drifts north / northwest toward the coastline. There is an apparent mid-level circulation associated with a trough, and has fired up showers and storms over the past 24-36 hours, but the activity has waned this evening. Perhaps the nighttime diurnal convective max will see storms blow up again, and then NHC was task aircraft recon to visit the system.
50% chance of development — steadily increased today from 10%/20% yesterday
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