July 3, 2026 Tropical Update Friday
Super Typhoon Bavi has already powered up to Category 5 and sky is the limit on future intensity
July 2026 was the warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 76.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+2.5°F).
July 2026 was the 26th-driest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Main event is massive Super Typhoon Bavi — powering up to Category 5 in the Western Pacific basin just east of the Mariana Islands. The current track forecast + models takes Bavi between Rota and Tinian at Category 5+
The Super Typhoon has plenty of very warm ocean water (SST > 29°C) but also very deep warm pool. Global Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:
Western Pacific warm pool is like a deep bath tub of very warm water compared to the Atlantic, and we could see Bavi reach 170-knots (T 8.0) as a result.
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The Global Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly across the tropical central and eastern Pacific is full tilt El Niño. Also note a “warm blob” in the North Pacific, and a “cold blob” in the North Atlantic. These are created by the accumulation of storms and high-pressure cells — strong / weak winds working on the ocean surface through waves + mixing.
Actual SST change over the past 7-days:
Quite significant warming in just 1-week across the North Pacific and off the U.S. East Coast with the major “heat dome” setting up shop over the Mid-Atlantic. The tropics are actually “cooling” overall in actual SST because of Atlantic Niña.
Headline Tropical Cyclone Tracks — for the next 15-days from ECMWF EPS 12z
Ghost town in the Atlantic for the next 15-days, at least.
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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
The huge “heat dome” breaks down, to be replaced by a deep trough and northerly flow — perhaps a cold front into the Southeast.
Trade winds continue across the tropics but nothing in the cards for development.
ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter
Major Saharan Air Layer + dust scours the MDR clear again — you can see the PWAT front (dry) blasting into the Lesser Antilles this weekend.
Atlantic Basin — Quiet for next 7-days (or much, much longer)
Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing convectively active in the Atlantic with the dust cloud moving through the MDR.
Sea Surface Temperatures still below 26°F reaching well into the MDR
Warmer than normal in the subtropics due to persistent weak winds and a strong subtropical high pressure (Bermuda high —> Azores high)
But still cooler than typical for early July in the MDR.
Early today GeoColor satellite imagery
A large plume of Saharan dust pushing through the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower.
The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet through mid-July, and that’s not surprising in any given year. However, with (Super) El Niño intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there’s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin’s overall “health” or favorability will improve through July into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside. Tropical waves will have a better opportunity to maintain low-level circulation as they emerge from the African coast into the “Main Development Region” (MDR) of Atlantic basin.
Saharan Air Layer with African Dust — next 10 days
Major plume arrived in Islands / Caribbean, and more swirling into the central Atlantic in 6-9 days, too.
Into July, winds over the African continent pick up sand and dust from the deserts and loft it into the boundary layer around 850-700 mb creating a stable and warm layer. The prevailing trade winds (east to west) in the tropics capture the dust layers and move them along into the Atlantic and eventually the Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico to provide beautiful & colorful sunsets for folks in Florida and Texas.
Zooming out to North Africa — origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin
One lonely area of interest in the next week (20%) … we actually had Tropical Storm Douglas, which didn’t last more than a day. The Eastern Pacific is remarkably quiet for an intensifying El Niño summer, but perhaps the negative PDO is having an impact.
Western Pacific Typhoon Season — Super Typhoon Bavi
Powerhouse Bavi up to 140-knots (T = 7.0 Dvorak) but battling some northerly wind shear, which is keeping the system from going “full tilt” and turning into a buzzsaw like Haiyan. Still plenty of time, unfortunately.
JTWC Track is 150-knots maximum prior to squeezing (not so much) between Rota and Tinian.
HAFS-A — 18z shows 913 mb and 160-knot winds at near-surface in 48-hours with inner-eyewall just over Tinian (early Monday out there)
SST plenty warm along the track ahead > 29°F
The 850 hPa Wind Speed shows a MASSIVE expansion in the coming 5-days as eyewall replacement cycles continue & Bavi accesses the equatorial moisture intake channel west of Papua New Guinea. HAFS-A Parent (18z)
Integrated Vapor Transport — shows another Typhoon following Bavi in 10-12 days
ECMWF 18z next 6-days stunning lifecycle of Super Typhoon Bavi
Deep Mind Ensemble Members (18z) with many in the 890s mb
Similar track and intensity envelope for EPS 12z (ECMWF ensembles)
Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks
Additional Typhoon possible coming out of the Central Pacific
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 973 · laid 2026-07-04T01:21:37.765000Z
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- https://weather.substack.com/p/july-3-2026-tropical-update-friday
- Digest
- 96236b202dc5aaddf3126e0311776712f68e242c09b4063bb318c1739afca5c2
- Machine
- JSON