Radar through 8:44 PM CT (earlier this evening)

Watching a couple storm complexes moving along — dumping heavy rainfall.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Friday Evening

Heavy rainfall will be focused on Kansas through Missouri, and into Illinois to Indianapolis with upgrades of 2” to 4” possible in just next few days.

My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

Weather Into Wednesday Morning

HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Thursday 2 PM ET

Weather on Wednesday — Cold front dips to the Gulf Coast

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 7-days

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) —> June 2026 Coupon

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

Generally 1.8” (yellow) PWAT with embedded > 2” convective cells = heavy downpours across Central U.S. into the Southeast.

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET

About 34 million population at least 90°F at 8:45 PM ET but plenty of comfortable 60s and 70s blanketing the Lower 48 east of the Rockies.

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET

Lower 48 was -1.7°F below normal behind the amazing cold front

High Temperatures Next 8-Days —> Thursday July 2nd

Trend to much hotter temperatures across the board into early July with 100s building across all of Texas with the much dryer conditions. Southeast including Atlanta and Carolinas push well into the 90s, and even 100s in the Carolinas.

With less tropical moisture plume activity from the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll see much warmer temperatures and lower rain chances —> warming trend into 4th of July.

239 million+ at least 90°F by July 1st with Lower 48 average high of 88.1°F

Low Temperatures on Wednesday

High Temperatures on Wednesday

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

Into Summer —> Height Anomalies don’t tell entire story … actual height helps!

Same story as yesterday: 594 dm to 597 dm contours pop up across the U.S. border in AZ/NM and then in the Southeast … trending warmer —> more typical “heat dome” centered over the Southeast into early July.

European Heat Dome | Temperature Anomaly next 12-days

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

Trough —> cooler across the Pacific Northwest with huge negative anomalies of -20°F vs. the formation of a ridge into later June and HEAT across the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic + Canada

Week 1 —> June 23 to June 29

Week 2 —> June 30 to July 6

Pattern flip with trough in the NW and Western U.S. —> cooler than normal with much warmer than normal into 4th of July east of the Rockies —> trending HOTTER

Atlantic Basin — Very Quiet through end of June 2026

Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active for certain in the Atlantic. These waves move into the Eastern Pacific but marginally favorable conditions (40%)

Saharan Air Layer with African Dust — next 10 days

While the African dust plumes expected over the next 7-days aren’t the most intense, NASA GEOS-5 shows a whopper in the Eastern Atlantic by early July.

Zooming out to North Africa — origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust

Satellite Imagery — not much active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

Ensemble Storm Tracks Next 15-days —> Complete Ghost Town in Atlantic

2 Tropical Waves in Eastern Pacific with Medium Chance (40%) in coming week

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Typhoon Mekkhala BLEW a tire … almost sheared complete part with strong northerly wind shear decoupling the low level circulation from the convection. Tough break!

We’ll see if the wind shear relaxes, or else this storm may struggle to regain convection, and be a large remnant low.

Tropical Depression Higos (08W) will become a weak tropical storm. No threat to land but it will come close to Japan.

Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks