Saharan Air Layer with African Dust — next 10 days

During the months of June and July, winds over the African continent pick up sand and dust from the deserts and loft it into the boundary layer around 850-700 mb creating a stable and warm layer. The prevailing trade winds (east to west) in the tropics capture the dust layers and move them along into the Atlantic and eventually the Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico to provide beautiful & colorful sunsets for folks in Florida and Texas.

While the African dust plumes expected over the next 7-days aren’t too intense, NASA GEOS-5 shows a whopper in the Eastern Atlantic by early July.

Zooming out to North Africa — origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust

Scattered thunderstorms in the foothills of the Rockies. Severe weather moved through NYC, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. earlier this evening.

Radar through 8:30 PM ET (earlier)

Scattered severe storms across northern Alabama and north Georgia with more firing along a boundary back into central Mississippi — a new line will form into overnight hours.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Thursday Evening

The rain in the Mid-Atlantic includes the ongoing storms.

My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

After the storm system moves through the Southeast along the frontal boundary, much drier air digs southward all the way into North Florida.

Weather Into Tuesday Morning

HRRR Forecast Radar into Tuesday Noon ET

HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Wednesday 2 PM ET

Weather on Tuesday — Cold front dips almost to the Gulf Coast

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 10-days

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) —> June 2026 Coupon

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

Generally 1.8” (yellow) PWAT with embedded > 2” convective cells = heavy downpours across Central U.S. into the Southeast.

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 7:30 PM ET

About 60 million population at least 90°F at 7:30 PM ET

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 7:30 PM ET

Lower 48 was -1.4°F below normal with rain cooled air along the frontal boundary

High Temperatures Next 8-Days —> Wednesday July 1st

Trend to much hotter temperatures across the board into early July with 100s building across all of Texas with the much dryer conditions. Southeast including Atlanta and Carolinas push well into the 90s, and even 100s in the Carolinas.

With less tropical moisture plume activity from the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll see much warmer temperatures and lower rain chances —> warming trend into 4th of July.

237 million+ at least 90°F by June 30th with Lower 48 average high of 86.5°F

Low Temperatures on Tuesday

Windows open across the Midwest and Great Lakes into New England —> perfect sleeping weather!

mid-40s in Northern Michigan

High Temperatures on Tuesday

The 70s are in some places 10°F below normal for high temperatures. The 90s in the Pacific Northwest are 20°F above average. Tuesday High Temperature Anomaly:

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

Into Summer —> Height Anomalies don’t tell entire story … actual height helps!

Same story as yesterday: 594 dm —> 597 dm (or higher) contours pop up across the U.S. border in AZ/NM and then in the Southeast … trending warmer —> maybe a more typical “heat dome” centered over the Southeast into early July.

European Heat Dome Next 10-days centered Western Europe — moves eastward into Germany and Poland … and still watching potential for another event in 10-days west of the U.K. which could push over Isles.

106°F in Berlin maximum this weekend! Some ensembles are even hotter!

HOT with 99°F to 103°F in Paris maximum Wednesday to Saturday. Brutal!

93°F in London from Wednesday to Saturday — a bit lower than yesterday’s forecasts

Temperature Anomaly next 12-days

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

Trough —> cooler across the Pacific Northwest with huge negative anomalies of -20°F vs. the formation of a ridge into later June and HEAT across the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic + Canada

Week 1 —> June 22 to June 28

Cool 7-days ahead for Midwest and Great Lakes — no complaints

Week 2 —> June 29 to July 5

Pattern flip with trough in the NW and Western U.S. —> cooler than normal with much warmer than normal into 4th of July east of the Rockies —> trending HOTTER

Atlantic Basin — Very Quiet through end of June 2026

Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active for certain in the Atlantic. These waves move into the Eastern Pacific but marginally favorable conditions (30%)

SST Temperature Analysis — still sub-26°C over half of the MDR east of 50°W

And, that area is much cooler than the last 30-years climatology. Northwest Atlantic is also very chilly — SST Anomaly

Satellite Imagery — not much active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

Ensemble Storm Tracks Next 15-days —> Complete Ghost Town in Atlantic

2 Tropical Waves in Eastern Pacific with Low Chance (30%) in coming week

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Typhoon MEKKHALA peaked around 125-knots, and is now dealing with dry air on the poleward side with some erosion of the northern eyewall

Slow weakening will continue as Mekkhala turns to the north and reaches near Tokyo in 5-days

Google Deep Mind Tracks

A new Tropical Depression 08W formed out of the invest we watched yesterday. It will become a mid-range tropical storm. No threat to land.

Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks