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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days: Another few days of significant chill across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before a ridge of high pressure + western heat pushes eastward — finally.

Headlines for Monday Evening

Tranquil weather for the next several days across much of the Lower 48. Hard to see any serious travel problems or severe weather.

Western heat moves eastward … for a quick taste of summer and 90s in the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Sun/Mon

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Wednesday, May 20th

Yes, significant warming across the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic into the 80s and 90s, but it’s quickly squelched by Canadian cold fronts — keeping the Lower 48 rather mild overall. The major exception for next few days is extreme heat across the U.S. Southwest. We should see much more coverage of 90s, but the best we can get is 74 million population next Mon/Tues.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

A few notable weather systems:

Pacific Northwest continued unsettled with a strong low pressure system moving into Alberta and Saskatchewan deepening to 983 mb with some snowfall on the poleward side.

Clipper system moves through Midwest and Great Lakes next 48-hours

Welcome rain across Florida with a frontal wave that moves off well off the Northeast coast.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

The western U.S. heat finally pushes into the Mid-Atlantic by Days 7-10 and then er0des again as Canadian continental “cool pool” arrives with northwesterly flow.

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 11 - May 17

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 18 - May 24

Wow, we have 7°F to 9°F above normal for 7-day period centered on the mid-Atlantic. Welcome warmth/heat into late May. Let’s see if we can keep it.

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

Major Canadian cold front crashes through the Great Lakes into the Southeast and even Florida into Friday.

Then, we will have a return flow of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico by this next weekend. Until then, don’t expect much in the way of shower/storm activity.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:15 PM ET

Hot > 106°F in Phoenix vs. the 30s and 40s in Michigan

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 9:15 PM ET

Lower 48 was 3.5°F ABOVE normal with +20°F across the Great Basin and even -21°F in Virginia

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Tuesday Morning

Some showers along the Gulf Coast with lingering frontal boundary.

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Wednesday 2 PM ET

Clipper system moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes with cool rain showers! More rain for Florida (welcome news) from weak frontal wave.

Weather on Tuesday

Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

Less than 1-million below freezing.

High Temperatures Tuesday

31 million at least 90°F and even 12 million in Southwest > 100°F

70s creeping into southern Michigan and getting closer to New York City!

60s into New England.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

10-day Forecasts — Atlanta, Washington, D.C., Chicago, New York City, Phoenix

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Evening

5-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | to Saturday Evening

15-day Ensemble Mean + Median Precipitation | ECMWF 12z

Tropical Update

Two tropical waves on the analysis … and a very interesting/rare frontal boundary on the NHC surface analysis in Brazil almost to the Equator from the south.

African dust plume forecast next 10-days

Significant dust bloom building for end of May off the coast of Africa.

North Atlantic tropics — precipitable water next 6-days = dead quiet / no surprise as the ITCZ is still suppressed southward near the Equator in the Atlantic.

Western Pacific: We lost HAGUPIT (05W) and not expecting much in the coming 6-days

Eastern Pacific Tropics — quiet — waiting on tropical waves to cross from the North Atlantic toward end of the month to get season started — which should be an active season with developing Super El Niño. Official start of EPAC season is May 15th.

Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

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