Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

Next couple weeks will be trending “below normal” with temperatures across the Eastern U.S. — first week of May a bit chilly for many in the Great Lakes and Northeast.

We can see the prevalence of deep troughing with influence from the Canadian tropospheric “polar vortex” which is still plenty cool/cold —> upper-level pattern from the world-leading “skill” data driven system from ECMWF (AIFS-Single v1) … v2 is upgrading on May 12th.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

The very strong trough loops over Montana and Alberta with cold air … heads into Canada but another “polar vortex” lobe dips into the Great Lakes and Northeast into early May. Overall, this is a cool and unsettled pattern from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Northeast with warmth across the South — and yes, more rainfall/storms on the way as the southerly flow increases. Not seeing any significant ridges or heat domes for the next 2-weeks across the Lower 48. Some are calling this “unseasonably cool” … but it’s just cooler than normal, and a far cry from widespread 90s that are certainly possible in early May.

10 day Precipitation Forecast | New Blend of Models v5.0

Relief is coming to the Tennessee River Valley and Southeast mainly next week as a much wetter pattern takes us into early May — the troughs are digging into the south and colliding with warm/moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico = stationary frontal boundaries + clouds and rain. No complaints!

This Evening’s Satellite Imagery

Severe storms moving through eastern Oklahoma and SE into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. West Coast looks fair.

This is post number 925: Good Evening! Day 114 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Special April 2026 Coupon for new/upgrade Annual Subscribers, or gifts. Substack algorithm has almost zeroed out platform visibility of this newsletter presumably because it is chock full of maps and not easily digestible (for AI) text. That’s a concern going forward into Hurricane Season. I’m going to need to branch this newsletter out, and always looking for ideas/partners to share the beauty of Earth’s weather and climate via very colorful maps (from NWP).

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Sunday into next week: another powerful Plains —> Great Lakes storm system with likely severe weather threat along a sharp cold front as cold air again clashes with the “heat and humidity” supplied by the Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front behind the storm system late next week will bring much cooler air to the eastern half of the U.S.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

Eventually the cold pool that is spinning over Montana and southern Canadian Prairies will move east behind a strong cold front next week and then start May off rather chilly.

Low Temperatures on Saturday

9 million below freezing including New England and the Dakotas to Montana/Wyoming with even a chance of 0°F around Yellowstone.

High Temperatures Saturday

Remains cool across New England and only around 50°F in NYC with clouds

Only 12.4 million at least 90°F mainly in Texas

High Temperatures Sunday

Down to 88 million at least 80°F from Texas into the Southeast including Florida

Back into the 60s for New England … mainly 50s around Washington D.C. with clouds and rain — not a very nice day.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

Lower 48 average was 64.0°F with 178 million at least 70°F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

Lower 48 was only 0.9°F ABOVE normal

Lower 48 Weather This Evening | Friday

Watching complex of storms (mainly hail threat) moving out of Oklahoma into AR/LA

Radar next 18-hours —> Saturday morning 11 AM ET

Complex of storms should hold together through New Orleans by day break.

Current Radar | 6:40 PM CT

Current severe weather watches — 1 tornado

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Sunday 2 pm ET

Clouds and rain across the mid-Atlantic and into NYC all day Saturday and into Sunday — crummy weekend — cool and wet

Next storm system gathers in the Plains with snowfall across Colorado and Wyoming Rockies. Thunderstorms refire with the heating of the day and approach of the dry line into the high humidity / unstable airmass stuck across the central U.S.

Late Saturday evening storms look similar to today’s across Oklahoma as the stationary frontal boundary remains in place

Scant rainfall across the Southeast including Atlanta — maybe 0.10” to 0.25”

Weather on Saturday and Convective Outlook

Enhanced Risk of storms centered on OKC

Sunday Weather and Convective Outlook

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Monday Afternoon

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Monday Afternoon

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

Nice to see the moisture pooling along the Gulf Coast from Texas into the Southeast with the polar front pushing the stationary frontal boundary southward = much wetter and unsettled pattern for the South.

ECMWF 12z | Moisture Transport (IVT) next 10-days

Next best chance for heavy rain in the Deep South and Southeast will be early next week, but that won’t cover the ongoing and growing deficit (and drought). It’s a start!

Total Precipitation Next 10-days | Blend of Models

I really like the look of next week with significant rainfall totals centered on Tennessee and hopefully expanding in all directions. Lots of very welcome RED on the map.

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Sunday, May 3rd

Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Sunday, May 3rd

Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | April 24 - April 30

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 1 - May 7

Tropical Update | Atlantic Basin | Next 6-days Precipitable Water

Cold fronts still reach well into the Atlantic including Bahamas with dry air to about 25°N latitude. The ITCZ is depressed to the equator or 5°N latitude into the end of April climatologically, so we don’t expect any tropical waves to develop out in the Main Development Region (MDR) until late June or early July. The tropical waves that do come off Africa often survive the trip across Central America into the Eastern Pacific to form early season (May/June) tropical storms.

Special April 2026 Coupon for new/upgrade Annual Subscribers, or gifts

Western Pacific Warm Pool Next 6-days

April 7: 2026 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2 9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

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