Golf Masters in Augusta: Perfect Sunny Weather through Weekend becoming hot!

Tropical Update: South West Pacific and North West Pacific

Western Pacific remains busy with 3 tropical systems watched by JTWC.

2 named Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones (Maila and Vaianu) and Invest 90W on the northern side of Equator.

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter) through 6-days shows likely rapid intensification of Invest 90W into a Category 5 Super Typhoon tracking WNW. The tropical cyclone near Papua New Guinea will likely fall apart in the next 3-days as wind shear from developing Sinlaku and land interaction disrupts the rather small storm just south of the Equator.

The first HAFS-A (mesoscale hurricane model) for Invest 90W shows a “behemoth” developing rapidly and moving near Guam.

Structure and intensity near Guam early Monday. 921 mb (Category 5)

Maximum Intensity later on Monday … minimum pressure 905 mb

Clearly we need to watch Sinlaku for potential impacts to Guam and the Mariana Islands … too soon to pinpoint a landfall as Invest 90W is in its formative stages.

This typhoon developed as the Northern Hemisphere twin of Maila on the SH side of the equator, and the winds out of the west will burst from Indonesia across the warm pool triggering an equatorial (oceanic) downwelling Kelvin wave — that will later modulate the ocean’s thermocline depth, heat content, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and currents —> transitioning the Central and Eastern Pacific to El Niño.

Maila (30P) | Category 3 | 110-knots

The inner-core (eye) is disrupted and a slow weakening process is underway. However, Maila could indeed cross the eastern tip of Papua New Guinea as a hurricane intensity storm. Thereafter, it will weaken to a tropical storm on way to Australia.

ECMWF Ensemble Tracks | Spaghetti 12z through 10-days | Invest 90W

The cluster of tracks furthest west = most intense (Super Typhoon Category 5) with others more quickly recurving to the north.

North Atlantic African Dust | Next 5-days

Dust over the north Atlantic and Africa — as any early season tropical waves will be wiped out by dust. We’ll also get a sense of the activity into June by the circulation pattern in the Eastern MDR of the Atlantic, and how dust flows over the ocean.

Moving Eastward into the Central Pacific — Kona Low and atmospheric river over Hawaii

Intense tropical moisture plume is pulled across the Hawaiian Islands = flooding very likely with downpours

Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) next 6-days

Precipitation and MSLP next 6-days shows the Konda low well north of Hawaii but the trailing atmospheric river / frontal boundary focuses/converges boatloads of moisture across the islands.

Total Precipitation Next 6-days — Tropical western Pacific —> Central Pacific pipeline!

Lower 48 Weather into Thursday Morning

Great Lakes Clipper System — how exciting!

HRRR 22z Radar Simulation next 18-hours into Thursday Noon ET

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Friday 2 PM ET

HRRR 18z Precipitable Water Next 48-hours (my favorite parameter)

Weather on Thursday | Next Storm System organizes in the Plains + California storm

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Saturday Evening

California + Florida both with very welcome rainfall

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Saturday Evening

ECMWF 18z | Forecast model 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next6-days

Looking at Moisture Transport (IVT) next 12-days for reopening of the Gulf of Mexico and southerly flow (moist and warm)

Next Monday — Tuesday —> next pattern shift to warm, southerly flow = convective threat

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:15 PM ET

Lower 48 average was 61.5°F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:15 PM ET

Lower 48 was 4.0°F ABOVE normal

ECMWF AIFS 18z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

The Hudson Bay Polar Vortex continues to spin for the next 10 days … with a ridge forming over the Eastern U.S. = significant warming trend, as the western U.S. sees multiple troughs = cooler and unsettled with more mountain snowfall (excellent news)

North America Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Friday, April 17

Much hotter into next week with 90s appearing in the Mid-Atlantic

Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Friday, April 17

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

Blend of Models | 10-Days Precipitation Total

Next 10-days zip/zero rainfall across Georgia — terrible!

Low Temperatures Thursday

Around 40 million below freezing — cold across Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic

High Temperatures on Thursday

Warming trend underway across Ohio River Valley — 50s and some 60s pushing into New England

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

There’s STILL a -45°C contour of the polar vortex at 500 mb holding on for dear life in Canada for the next 7-10 days.

Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

That’s a lot of snowfall for the Western U.S. that is VERY welcome into Week 2 as those troughs arrive.

Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (18z) next 15-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | April 8 - April 14

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | April 15 - April 21

April 7: 2026 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.