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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Winter MILEPOST 876

February 19, 2026 Thursday Evening Winter Storm Update

Odds increasing for impactful snowfall from Nor'easter in New England

What the month did

February 2026 was the 4th-warmest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 40.3°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 35.6°F (+4.6°F).

February 2026 was the 5th-driest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 1.4in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.1in (-0.7in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Earlier this evening in the 7 pm hour, a supercell with a confirmed tornado passed near Indiana University in Bloomington. These cells are within the warm sector of a storm system spinning over the Great Lakes.

This tornadic activity is right within the “Enhanced Risk” zone outlined by SPC earlier today with a tornado watch overlapping. These storms were well predicted in advance and the warning processing through NWS and partners including online streamers has been superb hopefully limiting causalities. Tornadoes in mid-February are quite rare in the Great Lakes, but the overall weather pattern is highly amplified with significant warmth east of the Rockies help to fuel the storms.

For subscribers

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Milepost
876 · laid 2026-02-20T01:29:05.304000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/february-19-2026-thursday-evening
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