Idalia expected to rapidly intensify
Landfall near Category 4 in Florida on Wednesday
August 2023 was the 10th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 74.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+1.3°F).
August 2023 was the 43rd-wettest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (+0.1in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Hurricane Franklin is 125-knots (937 mb pressure) the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season and has a chance at Category 5 in the next 24-36 hours. The satellite presentation is stunning. The eye temperature is +20°C but cloud top region could be colder, only -60s. If convection can intensify overnight, then 140-knots is possible.
NHC 5PM ET update at 70-mph is the top end tropical storm with rapid intensification likely over the next 36-hours prior to landfall. Visible satellite imagery, with the sun to the west casting shadows, highlights some of the structural issues with Idalia. The inner-core is not well defined without an eyewall. Aircraft recon is constantly observing Idalia and will certainly report in real-time the development of an eye before we see it on satellite imagery.
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- 82 · laid 2023-08-28T21:55:46.262000Z
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