While aircraft recon is en route, NHC hesitated to make major changes to the forecast track of TD 10L (Idalia). However, mesoscale model guidance shows high risk of rapid intensification over the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico in excess of 30°C.

The depression is still loosely organized with bursts of convection rotating around a center just off the Yucatan. Over the next 24-hours, a center of circulation should persist under a convective burst and become dominant. With aircraft recon sampling of the environment, forecasts this evening should zero in on the landfall location and intensity to a higher degree of certainty.