Tropical Depression 10L
Slow intensification likely over next 2 days to hurricane
August 2023 was the 10th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 74.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+1.3°F).
August 2023 was the 43rd-wettest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (+0.1in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 10L ( next name is Idalia ) at 5 pm ET. This begins the process of forecasting the track and intensity points up until landfall. The satellite presentation has degraded this evening with a large circulation including embedded convection elements. The lack of steering currents and proximity to land will likely keep the system under check for the next 24-hours.
10L will spend at least 72-84 hours over 30°C water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mesoscale models like the HAFS-A and HAFS-B are now very aggressive with intensification to 950 mb major hurricane while global models are less intense GFS 18z at 982 mb and ECMWF 18z at 995 mb. NHC track is to the right of the 12z guidance (brought forward for 18z — so-called early models). This rightward trend is also seen in the HAFS-A and HAFS-B.
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- 79 · laid 2023-08-27T00:30:42.092000Z
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