NHC has raised the development chances to “high” or 70% in next 2-days and 90% in next 7-days. Based upon satellite imagery, a tropical depression may form before the end of Saturday. A burst of convection has consolidated west of the tip of Cuba. Not sure where a low-level center may exist, if it does in fact. The next name is Idalia .

Invest 93L will spend 2-3 days over the very warm water of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, models are rather conservative with intensity suggesting a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane at landfall on Wednesday or early Thursday, probably along the Florida panhandle. The tracks are clustered on Apalachicola for 00z models, but that envelope could shift east/west based upon the eventually location of the center of circulation. Previous experience has shown an underestimation in forecast intensity from models. We should not be surprised if a stronger hurricane H1 or low H2 arises over 90°F ocean water.