October 28, 2025 Tuesday Weather Update
Historical landfall of Category 5+ Hurricane Melissa
October 2025 was the 7th-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 57.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+2.4°F).
October 2025 was the 56th-wettest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Earlier this afternoon, Melissa made landfall just west of Black River, Jamaica at near maximum intensity. The aircraft recon mission in the hours prior encountered severe turbulence but managed to record a central pressure of 892 mb with winds at least commensurate with 160 knots near the surface.
However, it would not be surprising to see the post-season analysis increase Melissa to 175-knots consistent with the > T 8.0 satellite presentation for 24-hours prior to landfall. Melissa was firing on all cylinders — and near/above the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) theoretically at 172 knots according to SHIPS guidance.
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