October 23, 2025 Thursday Melissa Update
Major hurricane intensity likely within 3-days with Category 5 potential
October 2025 was the 7th-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 57.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+2.4°F).
October 2025 was the 56th-wettest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Since we have the official NHC forecasts Tropical Storm Melissa, I will mainly post the “official forecast” and not nitpick or second guess hurricane forecasting professionals in Miami. It is counterproductive to “raise awareness” by issuing proprietary “path” forecasts that have unknown scientific provenance for advertising purposes.
However, we can focus on particular model solutions that have merit and are on the right track, no pun intended, for Melissa especially for intensity up to Category 5.
The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.
Read the full piece →- Milepost
- 772 · laid 2025-10-23T14:34:36.199000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/october-23-2025-wednesday-melissa
- Digest
- 7c6e73a239a0dfa92aa8afd77c3a047199c5865b7f4cfddd99d496fa085b8d0a
- Machine
- JSON