Invest 93L Developing in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm or Hurricane landfall potential
August 2023 was the 10th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 74.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+1.3°F).
August 2023 was the 43rd-wettest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (+0.1in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Newest model guidance has put a stamp of certainty on the development of Invest 93L into at least a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday with landfall as last as Wednesday. There are ensemble members < 980 mb meaning there is potential for a Category 2 hurricane. However, as you can see from the spread in the track solutions, the speed of movement and location = more/less time over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t want to bring up a Michael scenario as that was later in the season when upper-level winds were significantly different. In Oct 2019, strong wind shear actually aided diffluence aloft and rapid intensification.
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- 77 · laid 2023-08-25T22:22:29.087000Z
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- https://weather.substack.com/p/invest-93l-developing-in-southern
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