October 20, 2025 Monday Hurricane Season
NHC 90% chance of Tropical Storm Melissa soon
October 2025 was the 7th-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 57.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+2.4°F).
October 2025 was the 56th-wettest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
The vast majority of numerical modeling tools show a high likelihood of tropical storm formation in the next few days. NHC is currently at 90% (High) chance of development through 7-days.
Uncertainty about eventual track — but it’s hard to bet against the ECMWF flagship model solution that does NOT sprint Melissa into Hispaniola.
The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.
Read the full piece →- Milepost
- 769 · laid 2025-10-21T00:19:17.875000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/october-20-2025-monday-hurricane
- Digest
- b3b235de253146842cc5d1e5f2242e465b22eb97bc56086f1875452b0cda7cdd
- Machine
- JSON