2025 Season to Date: 9 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors

Mid-Level Water Vapor Loop | Atlantic Basin

While the Atlantic is currently quiet, NHC is continuing to watch an active tropical wave with some convection bubbling up late tonight. NHC has a 70% chance of development in 7-days.

The environment in front of the storm is rather dry in the mid-levels. However, as we’ll see from the NASA Dust loop, there is a fairly impressive Saharan Air Dust layer behind the tropical wave that may be signaling to ECMWF model to tamp down expectations of a powerful Hurricane Jerry.

The GFS/GEFS systems + Mesoscale models are ALL in agreement on Major Hurricane Jerry — while the ECMWF/EPS system is a coin flip for no development vs. major hurricane.

ECMWF Next 12-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

Large view centered on North America shows the eventual dissipation of Hurricane Octave in the wake of Eastern Pacific]Hurricane Priscilla with moisture heading into the U.S. Southwest — also absorbing what’s left of Octave, and then being followed by Raymond *60% chance NHC).

The flagship 12z model run from ECMWF shows a weaker reflection of Tropical Storm Jerry developing east of the Lesser Antilles and heading near/through the Northeast Caribbean through 5-6 days.

Tropical storm development chance is increasing — now up to 70% chance but uncertainty about the intensity — large range from minimal TS to Category 5.

Medium Range | AIFS 18z | 10-days Height Anomaly

Central U.S. ridging (and warmth) in the story of the next 10-days with troughs on either side. This is a persistent pattern — may need a recurving Typhoon to help rejigger the North Pacific jet stream and downstream Rossby waves.

NOAA WPC 7-Day Precipitation

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

70% NHC — Invest 95L with risk to Lesser Antilles and Northeast Caribbean in 4-5 days | Invest 95L ATCF —>

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water | Next 6-days

Updated ECMWF 18z is barely interested in the small vortex from Invest 95L and only minimally develops it into a TD/TS before merging with a frontal boundary in the subtropics. A strong African dust / Saharan Air Layer clears out the MDR like an eraser.

NOAA GFS 18z | Integrated Vapor Transport

GFS/GEFS = very aggressive with development of Major Hurricane Jerry

NOAA GEFS 18z | All Cyclone Tracks | 31 Ensemble Members

HAFS Hurricane Models | 18z Intensity Update

Major hurricane — but a small inner-core

NASA Dust Forecast | Next 5-days

Impressive Saharan dust layer!

SST Analysis and Anomaly | 12z

Passage of Imelda and Humberto took a huge bite out of the water temperature along the U.S East Coast to Bermuda with sub-26°C water and a remarkable “cold wake” that probably won’t recover heading through October.

Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean remain warm … with 28°C+ into the MDR = wide open for business.

Atlantic Satellite Image | IR

Areas of convection including 3 tropical waves — with Invest 95L showing some showers and thunderstorms.

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 18z

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 3 with Invest 95L — red 70%

Eastern Atlantic Night Pseudo-Visible Satellite Image | Invest 95L

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 7

Still around 50% chance of developing Invest 95L from EPS 12z — full physics.

Non-tropical area of low-pressure off the East Coast could be impactful..

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 10

Need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean and whatever might spin out randomly of the Central American Gyre.

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 14

Comparison with AIFS-ENS | 18z | Day 6 All Storm Tracks

Not all of the members trigger a track with Invest 95L but more than conventional model … also see the East Coast system tracks

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 8 PM ET

Busy — 2 hurricanes: small Octave and large Priscilla

Another system — Raymond will likely follow along the coast of Mexico

Hurricane Octave | NHC Cone | 80 mph Category 1

Hurricane Priscilla | NHC Cone | 75 mph Category 1

Could become a major hurricane heading slowly NW to west of Baja California in next several days. Moisture from the remnants will likely head into the U.S. Southwest in a week.

Eastern Pacific Current Satellite

Priscilla significantly larger than Octave.

PWAT Next 6-days for Octave and Priscilla — then Raymond!

Surge of PWAT through Gulf of California into Southern California and Arizona — and Raymond on its heels

Western Pacific Typhoon Season + Northern Indian Ocean Cyclones

A Hurricane developed in the Arabian Sea but has since nearly sputtered out over cooler water and very stable/dry atmospheric conditions east of Oman. It will dissipate in the coming couple days.

Potential Super Typhoon Halong (28W)

Massive typhoon — could reach 130-knots (I think) over warm waters well south of Japan. The storm will loop/curve out to sea and likely miss Japan.

ECMWF 12z | Ensemble Tracks for Halong

Interesting track for Halong — comes very close the Japan with the ECMWF 12z flagship model — but at this juncture — misses landfall — barely.

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