2025 Season to Date: 9 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 80

Mid-Level Water Vapor Loop

IR Loop

Medium and Range | AIFS 18z | 10-days Height Anomaly

A powerful Canadian Arctic trough will connect with Humberto & Imelda and take them out to sea.

Strong ridging persists over the central U.S. into week 2 — with the Canadian Arctic “polar vortex” showing signs of dipping into the Midwest and Great Lakes, but not quite yet! Instead, we’ll have balmy early-October weather — otherwise quiet.

High Temperatures Next 9-days

Wednesday Low Temperatures

A tiny % of New England below freezing — more chilly air back over Quebec and Ontario with strong Canadian Arctic trough

Wednesday High Temperatures

NOAA WPC 7-Day Precipitation

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

NHC Track for Hurricane Humberto

Hurricane Humberto IR and GeoColor Satellite

Humberto is firing very deep convection within a sheared environment — and looks more impressive than Imelda this evening

Hurricane Imelda | NHC Forecast Cone

978 mb — 75 knot maximum sustained winds

Imelda displaying a large, ragged eye like feature ESE of the main burst of convection

ECMWF Next 10-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water | Next 6-days | Humberto and Imelda

ECMWF 18z Relative Vorticity | Next 6-days | Humberto and Imelda.

Post-Tropical Humberto —> Powerful Hurricane Force “bomb cyclone”

Textbook 942 mb — “warm seclusion” extratropical cyclone —> 80-100 knot winds + gusts over the ocean —> and perhaps hurricane force over British Isles into Friday and Saturday.

SST Analysis and Anomaly

Atlantic Satellite Images

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 18z

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 2 but neither flagged as development potential by NHC

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 10

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 15

Still a LOT of random activity across the western half of the Atlantic basin through mid-October — including some Caribbean tracks likely emanating out of the Central American gyre — typical for early to mid October.

Eastern Pacific | Tropical Storm Octave (15E) + Disturbance (80%)

Octave might be around for a week meandering over warm-enough water to keep convection alive.

Burst of convection with Octave — the next disturbance likely a TD/TS by this weekend off coast of Mexico

Western Pacific | Invest 93W —> Philippines into South China Sea

Another Typhoon landfall in China this weekend

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