2025 Season to Date: 9 Named Storms, 3 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 80

Mid-Level Water Vapor Loop

Impressive upper-level outflow from Imelda as a trough digs through the Southeast — dry as a bone underneath the yellow + orange colors.

Medium and Range | AIFS 18z | 10-days Height Anomaly

We can thank this powerful Canadian trough for obliterating Humberto — and just enough of a connection with Imelda to keep it from affecting the U.S. East Coast. A ridge then sweeps eastward across the U.S. = warm conditions into mid-October.

We really lucked out on this “twin hurricane” system — saved by a strong dip in the Canadian Arctic jet stream.

Not much going on weather-wise this week across the Lower 48 except late summer like warmth into October!

High Temperatures Next 9-days

Precipitable Water Next 6-days

Precipitation Type Next 6-days

Snowfall Next 10-days

Plenty of snowfall already in the Arctic including Alaska — and some in the Rockies across Wyoming and Colorado.

Global 10-day Snowfall

Siberia snowfall quite healthy with widespread winter weather already.

Tuesday Low Temperatures

Tuesday High Temperatures

Warmth | High Temperature Anomaly Next 5-days

NOAA WPC 7-Day Precipitation

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

Thankfully Imelda will not be a threat to the U.S. East Coast but could bring hurricane conditions to Bermuda.

Evening Water Vapor Satellite Loop | mid-level

Wind shear is starting to impinge upon the circulation of Humberto — and it should steadily weaken until becoming post-tropical on Wednesday.

To the west of Imelda, another trough is digging through Florida and wrapping around the storm. Imelda is more asymmetric but the inner-core seems to be shielded from the worst of the mid-level dry air and upper-level wind shear —> so we should see Imelda become a hurricane on Tuesday and come close to “major status” before turning rapidly ENE out-to-sea.

NHC Track for Tropical Storm Humberto | 942 mb | 140 mph Winds

Hurricane Humberto IR Satellite

Wind shear is eroding the western semi-circle of the storm and the eyewall is opening … signaling a potential rapid weakening. Good news is that Humberto will go north and around Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Imelda | NHC Forecast Cone

Winds are nearing hurricane intensity with Imelda — and NHC has a maximum forecast of 85-knots by Wednesday (Category 2).

However, the satellite loop looks messy — with the curved band of convection becoming less organized. Hostile environment for a developing tropical storm — for now.

ECMWF Next 10-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

Humberto and Imelda both out-to-sea and gone by the end of the week.

Two more named storms in the next 10-days likely in the Eastern Pacific: Octave and Priscilla — with the latter developing close to the Mexico coast — and could be quite intense.

Need to watch a tropical wave coming across the MDR over the next 5 to 10-days and arriving near the Lesser Antilles.

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water | Next 6-days | Humberto and Imelda

ECMWF 18z Relative Vorticity | Next 6-days | Humberto and Imelda.

Cool loops of precipitable water as the two hurricanes interact — and form a twin cyclone systems that eventually breaks apart as Humberto becomes weaker during extratropical transition. Imelda will probably linger for a while longer — but will eventually head away as a post-tropical storm.

SST Analysis and Anomaly

Forecast in 15-days | ECMWF 12z

Just in two weeks, the 26°C isotherm begins rapidly eroding southward near 30°N latitude as Northern Hemisphere Fall continues.

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 18z

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 2 but neither flagged as development potential by NHC

Eastern Pacific | Invest 98E — 90% chance of development

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