2025 Season to Date: 8 Named Storms, 3 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 70

I really enjoy collecting the maps and typing up these posts — keeps me updated and engaged every day on the ongoing weather in the tropics and around the world. — Dr. Ryan N. Maue (*me)

Category 5 Hurricane Humberto putting on a show

Potential for heavy rain accumulations along the Georgia - South Carolina - North Carolina coasts with Imelda nearby. Uncertainty in the track — but 10” - 20” likely with broad circulation of storm. We are hoping Imelda loops/stalls far enough away from the coast to limit direct impacts (winds, waves/rip currents, and rain).

7-Day Rainfall Totals

Evening IR Satellite Loop | Caribbean

Humberto reached T 7.1 on automated Dvorak technique (ADT) satellite intensity algorithm with a > 20°C eye and convection colder than -73°C … potential for Humberto to intensify a little bit more as it heads WNW over 29°C warm pool of the western Atlantic.

SST Analysis and Anomaly

SSTs are very warm along the path of both systems > 28.5° to 29.5°C

NHC Track for Tropical Storm Humberto | 925 mb | 160 mph Winds

Watching the 70°W longitude marker — as the farthest west that Humberto will get — as that would determine how much Imelda is pushed into the coast

Humberto ATCF Spaghetti

ECMWF Ensemble 12z | Humberto Spaghetti

Tropical Depression 09L —> Imelda (09L) remains disorganized but should become a Hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday as the forward motion slows to a crawl

NHC still does NOT explicitly show a landfall of Hurricane Imelda through 5-days but there are ensemble members that show much closer approach

Tropical Depression 09L —> Imelda | ATCF Track Spaghetti

HAFS Maximum Intensity? Category 2 = pressure in the mid-970s

HAFS A Precipitable Water Next 126-hours

A trough from the north wipes out Imelda by Wednesday as Humberto exits into the North Atlantic

HAFS B Precipitable Water Next 126-hours

Imelda Spaghetti from the Google Deep Mind

Imelda Spaghetti from ECMWF EPS 12z

Note the members that DO directly landfall the coast — however, that is a minority solution < 30%

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

Medium and Range | AIFS 18z | 10-days Height Anomaly

Steering Currents from the AIFS 10-day Heigh Anomaly loop: typical track NNW for Imelda — and then out-to-sea for Humberto until Day 7-8 when the blocking ridge strengthens to the north of Imelda.

Imelda is left behind and would likely be significantly weakened but not obliterated by combination of trough behind Humberto and then blocking ridge sequence.

ECMWF Next 10-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

Flagship model 12z solution out to 10-days shows Imelda lingering and potentially making a loop over/near the coast of North Carolina — uncertainty remains. Similar solution from the 18z Update:

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water | Next 6-days

ECMWF 18z | 850 hPa Wind Speed | Next 6-days

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 18z

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 2 but neither flagged as development potential by NHC

One more tropical wave to watch coming off Africa tomorrow

Easterly wave season ending soon into October.

Atlantic Satellite Imagery | IR and GeoColor (night time)

Eastern Pacific Tropical Update | Hurricane Narda

Hurricane Narda | Category 1 | 80 mph Winds —> weakening quickly.

Western Pacific Tropical Update | Typhoon Bualoi

JTWC landfall forecast of 80-knots for Bualoi into Vietnam

Typhoon Neoguri still going — 75 knot winds well into the central North Pacific with a nice eye

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