August 15, 2025 Erin Forecast to Become Category 4
Friday update: Erin could rapidly intensify into weekend
August 2025 was the 28th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 73.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+0.3°F).
August 2025 was the 27th-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Storm Erin (05L) is nearing hurricane strength ENE of the northern Lesser Antilles. Dry air with Saharan dust layer to the north of Erin may have temporarily delayed the expected rapid intensification into Category 4+ in the next 48-72 hours.
Invest 98L: small area of showers and storms just off the coast of Brownsville, Texas has 12-hours to show enough organization for TD/TS status — 50% chance.
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