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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 699

August 11, 2025 Tropical Storm Erin Forecast

Monday: Erin to become a major hurricane east of the Bahamas by weekend

What the month did

August 2025 was the 28th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 73.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+0.3°F).

August 2025 was the 27th-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.3in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

2025: 5 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors [Erin +1]

It is too soon to discount — or pinpoint — USA landfall impacts from Erin (05L) but based upon current model guidance — the chance RIGHT NOW is low < 10%.

For subscribers

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Milepost
699 · laid 2025-08-12T00:16:48.233000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/august-11-2025-tropical-storm-erin
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