After a long break in the action, the Atlantic tropical basin is (finally) showing signals of tropical storm formation by this weekend, at least over the far eastern Main Development Region (MDR) as strong, well-organized tropical waves emerge off Africa.

GeoColor satellite imagery shows a plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plus dust from Africa to the Leeward Islands. From the ECMWF HRES models, the SAL is a hot, dry low-level (850-hPa) layer devoid of convection. Tropical waves emerge off the coast of Africa in a cocoon of their own moisture, which if it persists and can initiate growth from the very warm ocean surface, intensify into a tropical cyclone. During the week, the SAL moves westward and weakens substantially setting the stage for the MDR to blossom with named storms into end of August.