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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 607

May 15, 2025 Thursday Weather

Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather in Great Lakes

What the month did

May 2025 was the 27th-warmest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 61.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 61.0°F (+0.7°F).

May 2025 was the 12th-wettest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.7in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.6in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Bit of a delay today as I am on lunch break from jury duty here in Atlanta. But I’d like to mention that yesterday’s forecasts for the most extreme heat > 104°F in Austin didn’t pan out. The key was more moist air and higher dewpoints from the Gulf of Mexico won out over the advancing dry line from the west. This kept Dallas Fort Worth in the lower-90s and Austin at 101°F.

ECMWF HRES melted down with huge forecast busts in Dallas Fort Worth, but came back to earth in Austin in the 00z cycle prior to Wednesday’s highs.

For subscribers

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607 · laid 2025-05-15T16:42:12.475000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/may-15-2025-thursday-weather
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