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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader The Record MILEPOST 606

May 14, 2025 Wednesday Weather

Texas heat wave underway with 100s

What the month did

May 2025 was the 27th-warmest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 61.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 61.0°F (+0.7°F).

May 2025 was the 12th-wettest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.7in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.6in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

The heat forecast across Texas is complicated with the advance of the dry line vs. moisture from the Gulf around Austin. Looking at the forecast model trend (ECMWF) over the past several days for today (Wednesday), we’ve gone from 111°F as the most extreme solution from a few days ago to now 101°F. NWS is at 104°F in the forecast grids this morning.

Another thing to point out: when should you have known that Austin was going to hit 100°F or higher on Wednesday, May 14th? In other words, the forecast horizon allowed you to see the solution for today — 7 to 8 days ago when upper-90s showed up in the ECMWF HRES model.

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Milepost
606 · laid 2025-05-14T14:59:43.765000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/may-14-2025-wednesday-weather
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