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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 602

May 10, 2025 Saturday Weather Update

Southeast drenched over next few days with slow moving cut-off low

What the month did

May 2025 was the 27th-warmest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 61.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 61.0°F (+0.7°F).

May 2025 was the 12th-wettest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.7in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.6in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Only 3 weeks away from the beginning of Atlantic Hurricane Season. We typically look “close to home” for development as the tropical wave season in the “Main Development Region” or MDR doesn’t get going until July. Couple reasons: (1) the tropical waves aren’t strong due to heavy Saharan air and dust, and (2) ocean temperatures are too cool (< 26°C) for sustained tropical convection.

Across the Tropical Atlantic today, a plume of dust is cross into the Caribbean with fairly thick haze along 15°N. It shows up well in the true color satellite imagery.

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Milepost
602 · laid 2025-05-10T15:32:58.557000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/may-10-2025-saturday-weather-update
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