August 4, 2023 Hurricane Season
Looking toward week 2 in the Atlantic
August 2023 was the 10th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 74.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+1.3°F).
August 2023 was the 43rd-wettest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (+0.1in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
The JRA-3Q reanalysis from 1947-2023 is now available for download from the Japanese Meteorology Agency (JMA). I have collected about 10-years, going backward, so far today. This is based upon a 2018 version of the JMA spectral model and advance data assimilation techniques, so it is newer than ERA5 in terms of forecasting technology.
The ERA5 update for July 2023 is complete as of about 10 pm ET. And, then ECMWF puts out the new Seasonal Forecasts. The next update of the Seasonals is being planned, version SEAS6, which they may run more frequently e.g. 2x per week, and many more ensembles. ECMWF is putting together a strategy document for community feedback.
The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.
Read the full piece →- Milepost
- 60 · laid 2023-08-05T01:49:40.255000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/august-4-2023-hurricane-season
- Digest
- 0569668f9c8b9bea135f2bab219f85b40ab64de9277cabb68b281e587c91680b
- Machine
- JSON