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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 592

April 30, 2025 Wednesday Weather

Tornado potential in North Central Texas

What the month did

April 2025 was the 16th-warmest April in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 53.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 51.8°F (+1.7°F).

April 2025 was the 31st-wettest April in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.9in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (+0.2in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

We’re 1 month from the start of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Not much going on across the tropics except for a dust cloud coming off the African continent. Large amounts of dust stabilize the atmosphere preventing clouds from breaking through the convective cap to form storms. Also, the dust keeps a lid on solar radiation reaching the ocean surface and tends to be a cooling agent.

Amazingly — and a huge change from previous years — ocean temperatures in the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic tropics are running below normal (1991-2020) climatology. The Gulf Stream is also a bit further south than normal.

For subscribers

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Milepost
592 · laid 2025-04-30T15:20:05.132000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/april-30-2025-wednesday-weather
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