August 3, 2023 Hurricane Season
Looking toward week 2 in the Atlantic
August 2023 was the 10th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 74.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+1.3°F).
August 2023 was the 43rd-wettest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (+0.1in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Healthy tropical waves in the Eastern Atlantic MDR are sheared apart with the moisture, as seen from the ECMWF simulated water vapor imagery, stretching northward. Additionally, very unfavorable conditions aloft with troughing cutting into the tropics devour the waves. That’s not an active pattern at all for early August regardless of the health of the tropical waves emerging off of Africa.
The ECMWF ensembles [August 3, 2023 00z] do have handful (less than 10) members developing a tropical wave that reaches the central MDR in 6-days. The tracks thereafter by Day 10.5 (August 14) end up off the U.S. southeast coast or Carolinas. The strong subtropical high in the Atlantic is large and in charge.
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- 59 · laid 2023-08-04T00:20:58.678000Z
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