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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 56

August 1, 2023 Hurricane Season

Invest 96L at 40% is struggling while Dora 05E is rapidly intensifying

What the month did

August 2023 was the 10th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 74.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+1.3°F).

August 2023 was the 43rd-wettest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (+0.1in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Actual ocean surface temperatures [SST] on August 1, 2023 from the ECMWF HRES weather forecasting model [ weathermodels.com ] shows very warm waters well in excess of 28°C over a large area of the Tropical Atlantic and over 30°C in the Gulf of Mexico.

Weather models that are coupled to the ocean are capable of resolving the diurnal variations of the ocean surface. That includes ECMWF EPS and NOAA GEFS. So, if we take a climatological comparison at 12z, it may be slightly different than 00z in some parts of the world. I like using the NWP based SSTs since the OISSTv2 algorithms are based upon satellite retrievals and averaging that is less sophisticated than the NWP data assimilation schemes. Also, you can visualizing the forecasts going through 1 or 2 weeks.

For subscribers

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Milepost
56 · laid 2023-08-01T16:07:27.407000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/august-1-2023-hurricane-season
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